TikTok and the “Problem” of Foreign Influence

This is one of the clearer assessments of the efficacy (and lack thereof) of influencing social groups and populations using propaganda communicated over social media. While a short article can’t address every dimension of propaganda and influence operations, and their potential effects, this does a good job discussing some of the weaknesses of these operations and some of the less robust arguments about why we should be concerned about them.¹

Key points in the article include:

1. Individuals are actually pretty resistant to changing their minds when exposed to new or contradictory information which can have the effect of impeding the utility of propaganda/influence operations.
2. While policy options tend to focus on the supply side of things (how do we stop propaganda/influence?) it is the demand side (I want to read about an issue) that is a core source of the challenge.
3. Large scale one-time pushes to shift existing attitudes are likely to be detected and, subsequently, de-legitimize any social media source that exhibits obvious propaganda/influence operations.

This said, the article operates with a presumption that people’s pre-existing views are being challenged by propaganda/influence operations and that they will naturally resist such challenges. By way of contrast, where there are new or emerging issues, where past positions have been upset, or where information is sought in response to a significant social or political change, there remains an opportunity to affect change in individuals’ perceptions of issues.² Nevertheless, those most likely to be affected will be those who are seeking out particular kinds of information on the basis that they believe something has epistemically or ontologically changed in their belief structures and, thus, they have shifted from a closed to open position to receive new positions/update their beliefs.