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What is the Role of Cyber Operators in Assessing Effectiveness or Shaping Cyber Policy?

An anonymous European Intelligence Official wrote an oped in July entitled, “Can lawyers lose wars by stifling cyber capabilities?” The article does a good job in laying out why a cyber operator — that is, someone who is presumably relatively close to either planning or undertaking cyber operations — is deeply frustrated by the way in which decision-making is undertaken.

While I admit to having some sympathy for the author’s plight I fundamentally disagree with much of their argument, and think that the positions they hold should be taken up and scrutinised. In this post, I’m really just pulling out quotations from the article and then providing some rebuttal or analysis — you’re best off reading it, first, if you want to more fully follow along and assess whether I’m being fair to the author and the points they are making.

With that out of the way, here we go….

Law is no longer seen as a system of checks and balances but as a way to shape state behaviour in cyberspace

Yes, this is one of the things that laws are actually supposed to do. You may (reasonably in some cases) disagree with the nature of the laws and their effects, but law isn’t a mere “check and balance.” And, especially where there is no real ability to contest interpretations of law (because they are administered by government agencies largely behind closed doors) it is particularly important for law to have a stronger guiding function in order to maintain democratic legitimacy and social trust in government operations.

Idealistic legalism causes legal debates on cyber capabilities to miss a crucial discussion point: what operational constraints are we willing to accept and what consequences does that have for our national security?

Sure, but some of this is because the USA government is so closed mouthed about its capacities. Consider if there was a more robust effort to explain practice such as in the case of some European agencies? I would note that the Dutch, as an example, are sometimes pretty explicit about their operations which is then helpful for considering their activities with respect to authorising laws and associated national and international norms.

Laws attempt to capture as many activities in cyberspace as possible. To do so, legal frameworks must oversimplify. This is ill-suited to such a complex domain

This seems to not appreciate how law tends, at least in some jurisdictions, to be broader in scope and then supplemented by regulations or policies. However, where regulations or policies have been determined as regularly insufficient there may be a decision that more detailed laws are now necessary. To an extent, this is the case post-Snowden and with very good reason, and as demonstrated in the various non-compliance reports that has been found with certain NSA (and other American intelligence community) operations over time.

The influence of practitioners slowly diminishes as lawyers increasingly take the lead in shaping senior leadership opinions on proposed cyber operations rather than merely advising.

I can appreciate the frustration of seeing the leadership move from operations practitioners to policy/legal practitioners.1 But that shift between whether organisations are being led by operations practitioners or those focused in law/policy can be a normal back and forth.

And to be entirely honest the key thing — and the implicit critique throughout this whole piece — is that the decision makers understand what the ops folks are saying.2 Those in decision making roles have a lot of responsibilities and, often, a bigger or different picture of the implications of operations.

I’m in no way saying that lawyers should be the folks to always call the shots3 but just because you’re in operations doesn’t mean that you necessarily are making the right calls broadly and, instead, may be seeing the right calls through your particular lens and mission. That lens and mission may not always be sufficient in coming to a conclusion that aligns more broadly with agency or national or international policy intents/goals.

… a law might stipulate that a (foreign) intelligence agency cannot collect information from systems owned by the citizens of its country. But what if, as Chinese and Russian cyber threat actors do, a system belonging to a citizen is being abused to route attack traffic through? Such an operational development is not foreseen, and thus not prescribed, by law. To collect information would then be illegal and require judicial overhaul – a process that can take years in a domain that can see modus operandi shift in a matter of days.

There may be cases where you have particularly risk adverse decision makers or, alternately, particularly strong legal limitations that preclude certain kinds of operations.

I would note that it is against the law to simply target civilians in conflict scenarios on grounds that doing so runs counter to the agreed-upon laws of war (recognising they are often not adhered to). Does this have the effect of impeding certain kinds of military activities? Yes. And that may still be the right decisions notwithstanding the consequences it may have on the ability to conduct some operations and/or reduce their efficacy.

In the cyber context, the complaint is that certain activities are precluded on the basis that the law doesn’t explicitly recognise and authorise them. Law routinely leaves wiggle rooms and part of the popular (and sometimes private…) problem has been how intelligence lawyers are perceived of as abusing that wiggle room — again, see the NSA and other agencies as they were denuded in some of the Snowden revelations, and openly opposite interpretations of legislation that was adopted to authorise actions that legislators had deliberately sought to preclude.4 For further reasons the mistrust may exist between operators and legislators, in Canada you can turn to the ongoing historical issues between CSIS and the Federal Court which suggests that the “secret law and practices” adopted by Canada’s IC community may counter to the actual law and legal processes, and then combine that with some NSIRA findings that CSE activities may have taken place in contravention of Canadian privacy law.

In the above context, I would say that lots of legislators (and publics) have good ground to doubt the good will or decision-making capacity of the various parties within national ICs. You don’t get to undertake the kind of activities that happened, previously, and then just pretend that “it was all in the recent past, everything’s changed, trust us guys.”

I would also note: the quoted material makes an assumption that policy makers have not, in fact, considered the scenario the author is proposing and then rejected it as a legitimate way of operating. The fact that a decision may not have gone your way is not the same as your concerns not being evaluated in the process of reaching a conclusion.

When effectiveness is seen as secondary, cyber activities may be compliant, but they are not winning the fight.

As I have been writing in various (frustrating) peer reviews I’ve been doing: evidence of this, please, as opposed to opinion and supposition. Also, “the fight” will be understood and perceived by different people in different positions in different agencies: a universal definition should not be presumed.

…constraints also incur costs due to increased bureaucratic complexity. This hampers operational flexibility and innovation – a trade-off often not adequately weighed by, or even visible to, law- and decision-makers. When appointing ex-ante oversight boards or judicial approval, preparation time for conducting cyber operations inevitably increases, even for those perfectly legal from the beginning.

So, in this case the stated problem is that legislators and decision makers aren’t getting the discrete kinds of operational detail that this particular writer thinks are needed to make the “right” trade off decisions.

In some cases….yeah. That’ll be the case. Welcome to the hell of people not briefing up properly, or people not understanding because briefing materials weren’t scoped or prepared right, and so forth. That is: welcome to the government (or any sufficiently large bureaucracy)!

But more broadly, the complaint is that the operator in question knows better than the other parties but without, again, specific and clear evidence that the trade offs are incorrect. I get that spooky things can’t be spoken aloud without them becoming de-spookified, but picture a similar kind of argument in any other sector of government and you’ll get the same kind of complaint. Ops people will regularly complain about legislators or decision makers when they don’t get their way, their sandcastles get crushed, or they have to do things in less-efficient ways in their busy days. And sometimes they’re right to complain and, in others, there is a lot more at stake than what they see operationally going on.

This is a losing game because, as Calder Walton noted, ‘Chinese and Russian services are limited only by operational effectiveness’.

I don’t want to suggest I disagree! But, at the same time, this is along the lines of “autocracies are great because they move faster than democracies and we have to recognise their efficiency” arguments that float around periodically.5

All of which is to say: autocracies and dictatorships have different internal logics to their bureaucracies that can have corresponding effects on their operations.

While it may be “the law” that impedes some Five Eyes/Western agencies’ activities, you can picture the need to advance the interests of kleptocrats or dictators’ kids, gin up enough ransomware dollars to put food on the team’s table, and so forth, as establishing some limits on the operational effectiveness of autocratic governments’ intelligence agencies.

It’s also worth noting that “effectiveness” can be a contested concept. If you’re OK blundering around and burning your tools and are identified pretty often then you may have a different approach to cyber operations, generally, as opposed to situations where being invisible is a key part of operational development. I’m not trying to suggest that the Russians, Chinese, and other adversaries just blunder about, nor that the FVEY are magical ghosts that no one sees on boxes and undertaking operations. However, how you perceive or define “effective” will have corresponding consequences for the nature and types of operations you undertake and which are perceived as achieving the mission’s goals.

Are agencies going to publicly admit they were unable to collect intelligence on certain adversary cyber actors because of legal boundaries?

This speaks to the “everything is secret and thus trust us” that is generally antithetical to democratic governance. To reverse things on the author: should there be more revelation of operations that don’t work so that they can more broadly be learned from? The complaint seems to be that the lawyers et al don’t know what they’re doing because they aren’t necessarily exposed to the important spooky stuff, or understand its significance and importance. To what extent, then, do the curtains need to open some and communicate this in effective ways and, also, the ways in which successes have previously happened.

I know: if anything is shown then it blows the whole premise of secret operations. But it’s hard to complain that people don’t get the issues if no facts are brought to the table, whereas the lawyers and such can point to the laws and at least talk to them. If you can’t talk about ops, then don’t be surprised that people will talk about what is publicly discussable…and your ops arguments won’t have weight because they don’t even really exist in the room where the substantive discussions about guardrails may be taking place.


In summary: while I tend to not agree with the author — and disagree as someone who has always been more on the policy and/or law side of the analytic space — their article was at least thought provoking. And for that alone I think that it’s worth taking the time to read their article and consider the arguments within it.


  1. I would, however, would hasten to note that the head of NSA/Cyber Command tends to be a hella lot closer to “ops” by merit of a military leadership. ↩︎
  2. And, also, what the legal and policy teams are saying… ↩︎
  3. Believe me on this point… ↩︎
  4. See, as example: “In 2006, after Congress added the requirement that Section 215 orders be “relevant to” an investigation, the DOJ acknowledged that language was intended to impose new protections. A fact sheet about the new law published by the DOJ stated: “The reauthorizing legislation’s amendments provide significant additional safeguards of Americans’ civil liberties and privacy,” in part by clarifying, “that a section 215 order cannot be issued unless the information sought is relevant to an authorized national security investigation.” Yet just months later, the DOJ convinced the FISC that “relevant to” meant “all” in the first Section 215 bulk dragnet order. In other words, the language inserted by Congress to ​limit ​the scope of what information could be gathered was used by the government to say that there were ​no limits​.” From: Section 215: A Brief History of Violations. ↩︎
  5. See, as examples, the past 2-4 years ago when there was a perception that the Chinese response to Covid-19 and the economy was superior to everyone else that was grappling with the global pandemic. ↩︎
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Near-Term Threats Posed by Emergent AI Technologies

In January, the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) published its assessment of the near-term impact of AI with regards to cyber threats. The whole assessment is worth reading for its clarity and brevity in identifying different ways that AI technologies will be used by high-capacity state actors, by other state and well resourced criminal and mercenary actors, and by comparatively low-skill actors.

A few items which caught my eye:

  • More sophisticated uses of AI in cyber operations are highly likely to be restricted to threat actors with access to quality training data, significant expertise (in both AI and cyber), and resources. More advanced uses are unlikely to be realised before 2025.
  • AI will almost certainly make cyber operations more impactful because threat actors will be able to analyse exfiltrated data faster and more effectively, and use it to train AI models.
  • AI lowers the barrier for novice cyber criminals, hackers-for-hire and hacktivists to carry out effective access and information gathering operations. This enhanced access will likely contribute to the global ransomware threat over the next two years.
  • Cyber resilience challenges will become more acute as the technology develops. To 2025, GenAI and large language models will make it difficult for everyone, regardless of their level of cyber security understanding, to assess whether an email or password reset request is genuine, or to identify phishing, spoofing or social engineering attempts.

There are more insights, such as the value of training data held by high capacity actors and the likelihood that low skill actors will see significant upskilling over the next 18 months due to the availability of AI technologies.

The potential to assess information more quickly may have particularly notable impacts in the national security space, enable more effective corporate espionage operations, as well as enhance cyber criminal activities. In all cases, the ability to assess and query volumes of information at speed and scale will let threat actors extract value from information more efficiently than today.

The fact that the same technologies may enable lower-skilled actors to undertake wider ransomware operations, where it will be challenging to distinguish legitimate versus illegitimate security-related emails, also speaks to the desperate need for organizations to transition to higher-security solutions, including multiple factor authentication or passkeys.

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To What Extent is China’s Control of Information a Cyber Weakness?

Lawfare has a good piece on How China’s control of information is a cyber weakness:

“Policymakers need to be aware that successful competition in cyberspace depends on having intrinsic knowledge of the consequences a democratic or authoritarian mode of government has for a country’s cyber defense. Western leaders have for a long time prioritized security of physical infrastructure. This might translate into better cyber defense capabilities, but it leaves those governments open to information operations. At the same time, more authoritarian-leaning countries may have comparative advantages when it comes to defending against information operations but at the cost of perhaps being more vulnerable to cyber network attack and exploitation. Authoritarian governments may tolerate this compromise on security due to their prioritization of surveillance and censorship practices.

I have faith that professionals in the intelligence community have previously assessed this divide between what democracies have developed defences against versus what countries like China have prepared against. Nonetheless this is a helpful summary of the two sides of the coin.

I’m less certain of a subsequent argument made in the same piece:

These diverging emphases on different aspects of cybersecurity by democratic and authoritarian governments are not new. However, Western governments have put too much emphasis on the vulnerability of democracies to information operations, and not enough attention has been dedicated to the vulnerability of authoritarian regimes in their cyber defenses. It is crucial for democratic governments to assess the impact of information controls and regime security considerations in authoritarian-leaning countries for their day-to-day cyber operations.”

I really don’t think that intelligence community members in the West are ignorant of the vulnerabilities that may be present in China or other authoritarian jurisdictions. While the stories in Western media emphasize how effective foreign operators are extracting data from Western companies and organizations, intelligence agencies in the Five Eyes are also deeply invested in penetrating strategically and tactically valuable digital resources abroad. One of the top-line critiques against the Five Eyes is that they have invested heavily on offence over defence, and the article from Lawfare doesn’t really ever take that up. Instead, and inaccurately to my mind, it suggests that cyber defence is something done with a truly serious degree of resourcing in the Five Eyes. I have yet to find someone in the intelligence community that would seriously assert a similar proposition.

One thing that isn’t assessed in the article, and which would have been interesting to see considered, is the extent(s) to which the relative dearth of encryption in China better enables their defenders to identify and terminate exfiltration of data from their networks. Does broader visibility into data networks enhance Chinese defenders’ operations? I have some doubts, but it would be curious to see the arguments for and against that position.